The Big Local Stories of 2024

This is the final day of a very eventful year in search and local. Next year will probably bring even more change. In our final post of 2023, here's some of what predicted about 2024:

• Apple Maps will take on increasing importance to marketers.
• Google Local Service Ads (and other highly visual ad formats) will be shown more, in more categories, cost more and be worth less.
• As the quality of search results continues to erode Google will be forced to offer more "answers" in the SERP, leading to more zero-click results.
• Frequent algorithm updates and more SERP volatility will continue in 2024, creating continued ranking instability.
• Courts will rule that Google is an illegal monopoly in its default search and ad-tech cases. Google's deal with Apple will end but little else will happen.
• Users will continue to seek out alternatives to Google, including AI assistants, but Google's market share will remain largely unchanged.

I'm perhaps most pleased with the correct illegal monopoly ruling call.

Local search is evolving and 2025 promises to be at least as eventful as 2024. This time, rather than predictions, here's a look back at some of biggest stories we covered this year:

• The Rise of AI: ChatGPT launched in late 2022; Google SGE followed in 2023, morphing into AI Overviews in May of this year. Arguably AI was the dominant tech story of 2024. SearchGPT appeared in July and was rolled into ChatGPT in December. While Google's local graph gives it significant advantages, ChatGPT presents a credible alternative to Google search for many types of queries. Local may eventually be among them.
• The Algorithm: Exhibits and Leaks: Google's ranking algorithm looks very different at the end of 2024 than it did at the beginning. In late 2023 the Google search antitrust trial exhibits were made public. This, combined with the Google Search API documentation leak and multiple third party research efforts, left us more cynical about search rankings. Brand visibility, clicks and other behavioral signals were revealed to be much more significant factors in search rankings than previously understood. Google may not have "lied," but it wasn't exactly truthful either.
• Google's Self-Preferencing and Legal Woes: Many North Americans are not paying close attention to what's going on in Europe with the Digital Services Act and Digital Markets Act in particular. Google is in a pitched battle with EU regulators over its alleged self-preferencing in search results. We've done multiple research projects with EU users and have been monitoring the action. Google is trying to minimize changes to its SERPs in Europe and argues it's in DMA compliance. Our research in restaurants, hotels, and home services contradicts Google's claims. And the Local Pack is a major example of self-preferencing. Next year will bring more wrangling and potentially fines. Its legal woes also continue in the US, although the outlook is somewhat murkier.
• Reviews and Fake Reviews: This is a perennial favorite. That's because reviews are critical to rankings and consumer decisions. They're one of the top two local ranking factors and arguably the top conversion factor. However, Near Media research shows user engagement with review text varies significantly by vertical and often a majority don't read reviews so much as look at review counts and star ratings. Beyond this, a major new report shows AI review fraud is growing and the "cost" of review fraud is in the hundreds of billions. Also, this year the FTC issued a rule banning fake reviews. It may impact some egregious bad actors and larger companies but it may ultimately have limited impact "on the ground." At the same time, Google has been more aggressive in its review takedowns, in part because Europe's DSA punishes counterfeit content. But Section 230 immunizes Google in the US.
• Alt Platforms for (Local) Search: ChatGPT and AI are part of a larger story about the fragmentation of search, which has been going on for some time and will continue. Social media in particular (Instagram, TikTok, Reddit) have emerged as go-to sources for different groups and use cases. Specifically, younger users have reduced their Google reliance for certain query categories. And younger people also use ChatGPT and other AI tools. However, use of AI or social is not necessarily 1:1 a zero-sum proposition where Google is concerned.
• Apple, Siri and Search: Most local SEOs don't think very much about Apple. But they should. It already delivers more referral traffic than Bing or Yelp and that will undoubtedly increase. We talked a lot this year about Apple Maps, Apple Business Connect and potential Apple search alternatives to Google, including Apple Intelligence + ChatGPT. At least right now, Apple isn't building a direct Google web-search competitor – and wants to hang on to its Google-default-search billions as long as possible. But Apple's knowledge graphs, an improving Siri, Apple Intelligence and Maps may cumulatively chip away at Google iPhone volumes. This is also part of AI and fragmentation stories.
• Mysterious GBP/Local SEO Neglect: You would think that nearly 100% of local marketers, multi-location brands (MLBs) and local businesses would be laser-focused on managing and optimizing their Google Business Profiles – given that many consumers will make decisions based on the information in GBPs and not click-through to websites. Yet, when compared with other digital marketing channels and tactics, local SEO is neglected by many MLBs companies. That's according to BrightLocal's Brand Beacon Report. In addition, my Dialog program's SMB survey data show that only 43% were managing business profiles. By comparison 100% were using social media as the primary marketing channel.
• Local Ranking Factors: SterlingSky keeps a pretty comprehensive list of Google local SERP, GBP and LSA changes. For our purposes, this year there were a few variables that stood out or emerged: business hours (in late 2023), the continued importance of reviews, and the growing importance of images and videos in GBP/local results. For more context, Miriam Ellis has a terrific article on GBP profile elements that impact local rankings.
• Zero-Click Is Variable: Digital marketers tend to speak in sweeping generalizations. Such has been the conversation around zero-click behavior. According to Rand Fishkin's research, the majority of search queries don't result in a click to third party websites on the "open web." This is reportedly even more pronounced in mobile. However, what we've seen in our user research at Near Media is that it varies, sometimes significantly, by category. For example, zero-click numbers may be high in a category such as restaurants but in healthcare, legal, home improvement and even self-storage there is likely to be a meaningful percentage of clicks to websites. So crude generalizations about zero-click may not be accurate in any specific vertical or industry.
• Google UI (Mess) and AI Dilemma: While some users say it's easier today to find what they're looking for on Google there's plenty of competing evidence of increasing search dissatisfaction and fatigue. It takes a lot more effort to evaluate the SERP than it used to, despite Google's efforts to make it more "helpful." We previously likened Google's SERP evolution to "building a house without an architect; room after room is added without a coherent design or vision." Part of this is Google not wanting to damage ad clicks, while needing to respond to competitive threats, technological innovation and changing user expectations. With AI Overviews and AI Organized Pages the company is trying to preserve ad clicks, beat back competitors and build the search engine of the future. It's truly the "innovator's dilemma." The company trying to have it both ways; the reported AI Mode is an expression of that.
• Diversifying Beyond Google: The cumulative impact of all the discussions, disruptions, research and revelations of 2024 is that it's become imperative for marketers to diversify beyond direct response/performance marketing on Google and focus more efforts on other platforms where their users are spending time. While this can be seen as common sense or generic advice it's more true than ever. Furthermore, 2024's parade of seemingly capricious and chaotic algorithm updates and manual actions wrecked havoc on many marketers and publishers. It's now critical to focus on developing a trusted brand that consumers will search for directly, rather than exclusively fight the category search battle in the trenches of organic results.

There's a lot more I could have included, especially technical and in-the-weeds local SEO material. But it's New Years Eve.

Happy New Year. We'll see you in 2025.

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